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Would it be in North Korea's Best Interest to Merge with South Korea? Although more than half a century has passed since the two Korean governments were established in 1948, the Korean peninsula is still divided between the Republic of Korea (ROK, or South Korea) and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea). Inter-Korean relations are still characterized by mutual distrust, animosity, a lack of mutual cooperation, and conflicting ideologies. The cold war continues on the Korean peninsula. Certainly, the unification of North and South Korea is far better alternative to the nuclear crisis that endangers the peninsula now. Within the course of this research, we will first elaborate on nuclear potential in North Korea and the possibility of nuclear crisis, to be followed by the close discussion of the more plausible alternative unification, with all the political and economic implications it will bring about.
Always a problem and sometimes referred to as a rogue-state, North Korea is stirring up quite a mess in Washington, and the worry is well warranted. North Korea has proven time and time again that they are more then willing to sign a treaty, or agree to sanctions, and then continue on without the slightest regard to international law. On October 21, 1994, the Unites States avoided a deadly and costly showdown with North Korea by signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) along with South Korea, and Japan, a treaty that North Korea would then break only a few years later. This treaty gave North Korea a package of benefits in return for a freeze of their nuclear program.
The benefits were to include: light water reactors totaling 2, 000 electric megawatts and shipments of heavy oil to North Korea (50, 000 tons in 1995 and 500, 000 tons annually beginning in 1996 until the first reactor was completed and fully operational). These light water reactors are almost impossible to make weapons grade plutonium with and are to replace the reactors currently shut down which are capable of making weapon grade plutonium. North Koreas obligation in the treaty was to put a hold on all of their nuclear reactors, nuclear testing, and experimentation. The reactors were to be shut down, and monitoring seals placed on them.
One would think that given the generosity of this agreement, that North Korea would be more then happy to oblige, after all thousands of North Korean citizens starve to death each year. Also, North Korea would have to be subjected to multiple nuclear inspections. However, on October 16, 2002, U. S. publicly revealed the discovery of North Koreas secret nuclear weapons program. Within a month, not only has North Korea reactivated their nuclear facilities at Yongbyon, but they removed the monitoring seals and cameras from the facilities as well.
Finally, to punctuate their disobedience of international law, North Korea officially withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty on January 10, 2003. North Korea also kicked out the U. N. nuclear inspectors that were part of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, furthering the belief that they are willing to say one thing and do another with no regard for international laws or treaties. Any nation in this day in age who actively seeks nuclear technology and weapons is going to be both questioned and considered a growing threat to world peace. North Korea, by reopening its nuclear facilities and kicking out the U.
N. inspectors have made it very clear that they intend on building nuclear weapons. The great fear is that once they have built the bomb, they will use or sell the bomb. North Korea has been accused of selling every weapon they have ever created to the highest bidder. In August 2001, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld stated in Moscow that North Korea possessed enough plutonium to produce two to three, maybe even four nuclear warheads. (Orberdorfer, p. 93) If North Korea deploys its nuclear weapons against South Korea, the casualties would be numerous, and the effects of this would be rather dramatic. It is certainly not in North Koreas best interests to wage a full scale nuclear war against South Korea, since it will be confronted by most of the worlds powers.
Definitely, the option of merging with South Korea on peaceful basis is more plausible, and the first inter Korean summit showed that it is not impossible. The first-ever inter-Korean summit meeting between President Kim Dae-Jung and Chairman Kim Jong-il, held in Pyongyang on 13 - 15 June 2000, was indeed historic. The summit produced an Inter-Korean joint declaration of 15 June 2000, which provided a framework for institutionalizing a peaceful coexistence between the two Korean states. Chairman Kim Jong-il's decision to attend the June summit meeting symbolized his strategic policy change toward the South.
The new inter-Korean peace process continues to build mutual trust and understanding on which a durable peace on the Korean peninsula can be firmly established. The Korean peace-building process is the necessary first step for achieving Korean reunification. The two-track approach -- an inter-Korean track and an international track -- to peace regime building is required to establish a durable peace in Korea. The two Koreas should continue to remove key obstacles to their reconciliation, cooperation, and peace.
The two Koreas need to work together to find an alternative to South Korea's goal of an inter-Korean peace agreement and North Korea's goal of a North Korea -- U. S. peace treaty so that they can establish an agreed framework for a durable peace. North Korea is suffering from multiple crises.
Despite its numerous problems, most believe that North Korea under Kim Jong-il is likely to survive in the short and intermediate terms but is bound either to change or to fall in the long term. The question is how to manage the inter-Korean peace process by inducing Pyongyang's transformation and controlling its downfall. Seoul can pursue one of two endings for Pyongyang: "crash landing" or "soft landing. " North Korea's crash landing, or sudden collapse from within, is not desirable for a number of reasons. Seoul does not have the economic capability to absorb North Korea's collapse. Considering Seoul's economic setbacks in recent years (even after significant recovery), Korean unification after the German model would be a heavy blow to Seoul's economy, and it might lose its competitive edge for many years to come. (Cost, p. 9) The South Korean people cannot afford to lose their hard-earned economic prosperity for immediate national unification. If North Korea's economic situation deteriorates, its famine spreads, and its international isolation de
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