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Alan Greenspan Alan Greenspan, the ex-head of the Federal Reserve System of the USA, is always laconic. Besides, answering the questions connected to his professional work, he masterly gives to literally several of his words so much shades of sense, that Bernard Shaw could envy him. In 1995 after one of such conversation of Greenspan with press all financial America read with interest in one of morning papers that the head of the Federal Reserve "has hinted at desire of directors of the FED to lower the interest rate", and in another - that he "has expressed doubt in an opportunity of reduction of the interest rate in the near future." After that Greenspan began to finish the dialogue with journalists with words: "If it seemed to you, that I expressed myself clearly enough, you have understood me incorrectly." (Woodward B. p. 12) Alan Greenspan was born in Brooklyn on March, 6, 1926 in family of emigrants from Germany. His father was the exchange broker but when Alan was five years old, parents have divorced, and since then he saw his father only occasionally. His mother Rose after divorce has moved with the son to the parents to New York in a small two-room apartment in the six-storied house at the corner of Broadway and West 163 rd Street and has gone to work as a saleswoman in a furniture store.
Though Alans father - Herbert Greenspan - was the famous person and even has somehow presented his book to nine-year Alan "Recovery Ahead" (about necessity of the state stimulation of economy), his influence on formation of the person of his son was insignificant. Alan spent almost all the time with his mother, her father and his aunts children. Their main interests have been connected with music. The grandfather sang in chorus of a synagogue, mother liked to sing and play piano. Alan began from playing claret in a school orchestra, and then began taking lessons with the well-known at that time in New York teacher of music Bill Scheiner. Thus Alan in five years has learned how to combine three-value numbers in mind and he was always asked to count something in the presence of guests while other children were asked to tell a poem.
Thus at school he became the passionate baseball player. When he has graduated from George Washington's school in 1943, under his photo in an album of graduates the inscription appeared: "Smart as a whip and talented, too. He " ll play the sax and clarinet for you." (Sicilia D. B. p. 17) In 1954 Alan together with the securities expert William Taunsend has established consulting company "Taunsend - Greenspan" that has opened office at Wall Street and has got the clientele successfully making profit. In 1958 Taunsend has died, and Alan became the president and the main owner of this company.
At this work Greenspan has got acquainted with Arthur Burns that supervised the Federal Reserve System in 1970 th. Burns has drawn Greenspan's attention to the state regulation of a financial system. When in 1974 his friend from jazz-band Leonard Harvest has invited Greenspan to become the economic adviser of the president Nixon, the further career of the future financial guru of the United States began to develop in a new way. Becoming Nixon's adviser on economy one month prior to his resignation, Greenspan remained on this position and at the following president Gerald Ford till the next president James Carter has not sent Alan in resignation in 1977. Greenspan used this respite to protect at the Colombian university new master degree on practice of regulation of financial mechanisms of the state.
Discharge from the state posts appeared rather short. In 1981 Greenspan has headed the commission on reform of system of social insurance in administration of the president Ronald Reagan. After that Alan has changed many posts. During Reagan's board he was a member of the presidential advisory council on investigation, the commission on financial institutions and their regulation, the commission on transition to military service under the contract and others.
Greenspan's ascent to a post of the main regulator of a financial system of the United States has passed very modestly. In 1987 the previous chairman of the Federal Reserve System Paul Volcker has unexpectedly submitted to resignation. The President Ronald Reagan has suggested Greenspan as his successors. To that moment Alan was 61, however he was confident in his ability to understand needs of the largest economy of the world.
It was that chance for the sake of which Greenspan studied all his life and protected master dissertations. The head of the FED has no right somebody to consult anyone, so Alan liquidates the consulting company in which he has worked all his life. Besides the new post obliges not to consist in members of boards of directors of the companies. Alan leaves rather profitable places in aluminum corporation Alcoa, bank J. P. Morgan, oil company Mobil and food giant General Foods.
Very soon Americans could not imagine anymore how it is possible to live without Greenspan. From the very beginning he has proved to be the supporter of a rigid credit policy with the basic purpose - the control over inflation. Thus he remained the consecutive supporter of liberal economy and in contrast to views of the own father minimization of intervention in it the states. Seldom acting publicly and almost never opening underlying reason of the decisions, he has become famous for the literally dot impacts which nevertheless appeared incredibly effective. It is literally right after assignment for a post of the head of the FED Greenspan has faced with American "black Friday" on October, 19, 1987 when the Dow Jones index has fallen to 508 points within day. Alan has undertaken then a number of the measures recognized then as absolutely correct.
Since this moment Greenspan's actions have started to perceive as divine revelations, and to name him as "the best head of the FED in XX century." Despite it, sometimes Greenspan can be very quick in increase of the rate. He has already shown it in 1994. During recession in 1990 - 1991 the FED began to reduce rates at once as soon as stagnation was outlined in economy (in the beginning of 1989). And it is impossible to tell, that inflation at this time did not represent danger. On the contrary, the inflationary trend has been directed upwards. Comparing actions of the FED in 1989 with actions in 2000, it is possible to tell, that ten years ago the FED operated more operatively.
During last recession of 2001 Greenspan was late with reduction in rates at least for one quarter. The cycle of mitigation of a credit policy proceeded four years. Only in the beginning of 1993 the rates have reached the "bottom." It is interesting, that during 1992 that was characterized by steady growth in economy, interest rates were reduced. Real interest rates actually whole year were at a zero level.
Growth of rates began only on February, 4, 1994 when the Federal Reserve System has frightened the markets with the increase of short-term interest rates. These shocks have generated horror. Thus, the period between a turn of a business-cycle in economy and the beginning of toughening of a credit policy has made 2, 5 years. Dynamics of inflationary processes at this time was atypical. During 1991 - 1993 inflation changed within the limits of 2, 5 - 3, 0 %, not showing even a hint on acceleration, besides, that economic rise in 1992 - 1993 was already obvious. Moreover, in 1993 the weak tendency to delay of inflation was observed (even at good rates of growth and extremely soft credit policy).
As it was already marked, increase of discount rates began only in 1994, and, besides, there was no acceleration of inflation during this moment. Increase of rates in 1994 carried more likely, preventive character and became possible only when the FED was finally convinced in stability of economic growth. It is necessary to notice, that sharp toughening of a credit policy in 1994 was not terminated successfully. Already on a boundary of 1994 - 1995 known Mexican crisis has burst which was characterized by landslide falling of US dollar against the Japanese yen. To tell the truth, it has affected a condition of the American economy rather limitedly. The rates of growth were slowed down, but positive tendencies were kept.
However, some companies have carried very much heavy losses. For example, heads of P&G on February, 14, already incurring losses, have concluded the new contract with conditional cost of 94 million dollars for 4, 5 years, expecting on downturn of interest rates. Interest rates have not fallen. They have increased from 3, 25 % in February up to 6, 5 % in December while the basic rate has increased from 6 up to 8, 5 %. For &G it was accident. Under the first contract they should pay Banker Trust at the rate of 14, 25 percentage point up to the end of 1998, and under the second contract for the same period - at the rate of 16, 4 percentage points.
The society can derive benefit from such situation. In November, 1994 Alan Greenspan, has declared: "Someone can agree that the role of the control over banks consists in minimizing or even to full exception of cases of ruin of banks; but I think, that this point of view is erroneous. Readiness for risk is necessary for development of economy of the free market. If everyone who has savings, and their intermediaries invested only in risk free actives, the potential of economic growth would remain non-realized." (Rockoff H.
p. 154) During 1995 economy the USA was in a fever, rates of growth were low, but recessions managed to be avoided. If to examine the economy the USA after 1994 Alan Greenspan has proved himself only from the best side. Smart and far-sighted Alan even the improbable authority has placed in the service of the American economy. Before the publication in 1990 th years of the next report put on the law on the financial investments he has sold shares and has got the state bonds on the earned money. Promulgations of these data appeared sufficient that the price for shares has fallen, and for state papers has grown and as consequence, the market "has cooled down." In 1996 Greenspan has managed to lower overheating of the share market by only one mention of that, in his opinion, the price for the shares have not increased too highly. In 1998 Greenspan resisted influence on the American economy of financial crises in Latin America, Southeast Asia and Russia, by having lowered a discount rate three times.
Greenspan's critics blame him for obvious preference only to the most necessary measures, insisting on necessities of a long-term credit policy. Its bright display is completely opaque and poorly predicted policy of the FED on change of a discount rate. While the majority of central banks in the world operate within the framework of target parameters of inflation, Greenspan, making of the decision, never advertised criteria from which proceeds. Even his direct subordinates repeatedly complained, that do not know, how policy of the FED will change tomorrow. Nevertheless Greenspan's actions have led to that at the end of 1990 th years the rate of unemployment in the USA has fallen up to the lowest for two and a half decades parameter - 4 %, and a rate of inflation - up to 1, 5 %, a minimum level for last 11 years. Therefore there is nothing surprising, that Greenspan remained permanent the head of the FED during boarding of four presidents of the USA, democrats and republicans.
Alan was appreciated first of all for that the congressman from state Texas Frank Ikard has called the ability to know "how many bolts with flat heads is used at assembly of automobile Chevrolet and what will be with the American economy if three of them to cease to twist." And when the todays president of the USA George Bush Jr. have been asked what he will do first of all in case of occurrence of an extreme economic situation, he has answered: "I will immediately contact Alan Greenspan." (Martin J. p. 73) Bibliography: J. Kevin Corder, Central Bank Autonomy: The Federal Reserve System in American Politics, Garland Publishing (1996) J. Martin, Greenspan: The Man behind Money (2000); Carl H. Moore, The Federal Reserve System: A History of the First 75 Years, McFarland and Company, (1990) D.
B. Sicilia and J. L. Cruikshank, The Greenspan Effect (1999); H. Rockoff, Gary M. M.
Walton: History of the American Economy 9 TH, South-Western College Publishing (2001); B. Woodward, Maestro: Greenspan's Fed and the American Boom (2000);
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