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David Stern, along with 13 NBA general managers, gets to play Powerball Sunday in the annual NBA Draft Lottery. Will the Knicks, with just a 4. 4 percent chance of winning the lottery, get a little home cooking? Will MJ's Wizards get an extra Ping-Pong ball or two for wiping out the luxury tax this year? Did Jerry West know something we didn't when he took the head job out there in Memphis? The NBA, in an effort to avoid the riot that would take place if the Knicks are in the first envelope, has invited a handful of media members to witness the actual drawing, the first time it has ever opened the process... but in the end, someone still will get screwed.
You have to go back to the 1990 draft, when the Nets took Derrick Coleman, to find the worst team in the league drafting No. 1. The Knicks' winning the lottery would actually be less strange than either the Bulls or Warriors taking home the honors. Last year, the Bulls had the worst record in the league and ended up with the No. 4 pick. The Warriors had the second-worst record and ended up with the No. 5 pick. In 2000, the Clippers ended with the worst record and the No. 3 pick. The Bulls had the second-worst record and drafted No. 4.
The Nets, who got the No. 1 pick, had the seventh-worst record in the NBA. In 1999, the Grizzlies were the worst team in the NBA, but could manage only the No. 2 pick. The Clippers won only nine games, but had to wait until pick No. 4 to take Lamar Odom. In 1998, the Nuggets took home the worst record honors but nabbed only the No. 3 pick.
In 1997, the Spurs leapt ahead of the Grizzlies and the Celtics to grab the No. 1 pick and Tim Duncan. In 1993, the Magic grabbed the No. 1 pick with a 41 - 41 record, best among lottery teams. You get the picture. With two players, Duke's Jay Williams and China's Yao Ming, during it out for the top prize, Sunday's lottery will go a long way in determining who will be the No. 1 pick in this year's draft.
Both players have their pros and cons. Williams is the most NBA-ready player in the draft. He's a proven product, can score, has an NBA body and plays a key position -- point guard. Some GM's think he " ll add 10 wins immediately to the team that drafts him. Yes, there are questions about whether he's really more of a two guard in a point guard's body. And we all know by know that he has trouble hitting clutch free throws.
But he's still the best player in the draft right now. Yao is 7 -foot- 5. He's a giant. Period. That alone propels him into candidacy for the No. 1 pick. That he's fundamentally sound, has a killer jumper and is still young make him a lock, right?
Wrong. Some teams wonder how he " ll handle the daily pounding in the NBA. Other GM's are spooked by all the obstacles the Chinese government keeps erecting. No one wants to blow a No. 1 pick on a guy who may not be able to play over here. If his situation isn't clearer by the day of the draft, he probably sinks.
Other players such as Mike Dunleavy, Chris Wilcox, Caron Butler, Drew Gooden, Dajuan Wagner, Qyntel Woods and even Nikoloz Tskitishvili have a chance to sneak into the top 3 -- a lot of it depends on who's drafting where. Insider did some digging, talked to some teams, looked into the crystal ball and gives you our take on what each lottery team would do if it grabs the No. 1 pick. 1 t. Chicago Bulls Number of balls: 225 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 22. 5 % | No. 2 pick: 20. 3 % | No. 3: 17. 6 % Who they'd take No. 1: One of the toughest teams to project. The Bulls's taff is pulling for Williams. It's hard to believe they could pass him up. The team does have an up-and-coming point guard, Jamal Crawford, but Williams is a better talent.
The team needs offense and leadership, all things Williams can provide. However, the word is that GM Jerry Krause is absolutely intoxicated with Yao's upside. Krause envisions an ultra-big lineup of Yao (7 - 5), Eddy Curry (6 - 11), Tyson Chandler (7 - 1), Jan Rose (6 - 8) and Crawford (6 - 6) someday. A third scenario has the Bulls selling off the pick to the highest bidder.
They drafted two high school players last year and they " re awfully young. If Yao or Williams could land them a young, All-Star caliber player (like Elton Brand, the guy they traded away last year) it might be time to start thinking about winning a basketball game or two. Who they'd take No. 2: Obviously, if they get the No. 2 pick the decision would be made for them. If Yao was still on the board it would be Yao.
If Williams was still on the board then it would be Jay. Who they'd take No. 3: Mike Dunleavy. The team has been trying to get a hold of sweet-shooting small forward for the last few years. It made an effort to grab Wally Szczerbiak and Mike Miller last summer and Dunleavy has the potential to be better than both of them. 1 t. Golden State Warriors Number of balls: 225 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 22. 5 % | No. 2 pick: 20. 3 % | No. 3: 17. 6 % Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. Despite all the speculation that Yao would the perfect fit in the Bay area, the team loves Williams.
With Larry Hughes flaming out at point guard this season, it's the team's biggest need area. Yes, Gilbert Arenas played well there at the end of the season, but he's no Jay. Who they'd take No. 2: Yao Ming. The Warriors aren't as high on him as other teams and they could pass. But he's better than anything they have in the post right now, and from a marketing perspective, he may be able to put a few fans in the seats. If they draft him, they'd be able to move either Erick Dampier or Anal Foyle for a veteran point guard.
Who they'd take No. 3: Chris Wilcox. No offense to Danny Fortson, but if the team could grab an athletic power forward who can score in the post, run the break and rebound, it " ll do it. Fortson, despite his strong rebounding skills, hasn't really fit in anyway and the Warriors would probably be able to move him this summer for a mid-level point guard. 3. Memphis Grizzlies Number of balls: 157 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 15. 7 % | No. 2 pick: 15. 8 % | No. 3: 15. 7 % Who they'd take No. 1: The team, despite being one of the worst teams ever, has never won the No. 1 pick. Now that Jerry West is running the show, he might have the magic to pull it off, but who knows what he'd do? We " re used to him taking obscure players like Dean George or Derek Fisher late in the first round.
Kei Madison is intriguing, but we don't think he's worthy of the No. 1 pick, Jerry. If Yao hadn't given the Grizzlies the stiff arm, he'd be an obvious pick here. With the retirement of Big Country, the team has a gaping hole in the middle. But the likelihood that Yao stays in China increases dramatically if the Grizzlies draft him.
Williams makes sense, he's an upgrade over the other Williams, but, believe or not, league sources say West actually has a taste for White Chocolate. Go figure. Don't be surprised if they trade this away for a prospect that's a little further along. Who they'd take No. 2: Same dilemma.
My guess is that they trade it. Who they'd take No. 3: There's been a lot of speculation that the team likes Dunleavy, but I think you shouldn't count out Qyntel Woods here. He's been working out in Memphis and he's just the type of obscure pick West loves. Scouts say he could be a Tracy McGrady-type player. You gotta love that.
But he's still very raw and questions about some off-court issues may scare the Grid away. 4. Denver Nuggets Number of balls: 120 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 12. 0 % | No. 2 pick: 12. 7 % | No. 3: 13. 4 % Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. The team has been subtly sending out signals that it's not that high on Jay. That's bull. Its backcourt is the thinnest in the league. Whether he's a point or a two guard, it doesn't matter.
He helps the Nuggets win a few more games next year and might be good enough to convince Antonio Mc Dyess to re-sign next summer. Who they'd take No. 2: Yao Ming. Kiki Vandeweghe likes him and the team has a pre...
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