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ter>Sam Vaknin's Psychology, Philosophy, Economics and Foreign Affairs Web Sites Many futurologists - professional (Toffler) and less so (Naisbitt) - tried their hand at predicting the future. They proved quite successful at predicting major trends but not as lucky in delineating their details. This is because, inevitably, every futurologist has to resort to crude tools such as extrapolation. The modern day versions of biblical prophets are much better informed - and this, precisely, seems to be the problem.
The cluttered information obstructs the outlines of the philosophically and conceptually most important elements. The futurologist has to divine which - of a host - of changes which occur in his times and place ushers in a new era. Since the speed at which human societies change has radically accelerated - the futurologist's work has become more compounded and less certain. It is better to stick to truisms, however banal. True and tried is the key to successful (and, therefore, useful) predictions. What can we rely upon which is immutable and invariant, not dependent on cultural context, technological level, or geopolitical developments?
Human nature, naturally. The introduction of human nature into the equation which should yield the prediction may further complicate it. Human nature is, arguably, the most complex thing in the universe. It is characteristically unpredictable and behaviorally stochastic. It is not the kind of paradigm conducive to clear-cut, unequivocal, unambiguous forecasts. This is why it is advisable to isolate two or three axes around which human nature - or its more explicit manifestations - revolves.
These organizational principles must possess comprehensive explanatory powers, on the one hand - and exhibit some kind of synergy, on the other hand. I propose such a trio: Individuality, Collectivism and Time. Individuation is the Separation principle, the human yearning for uniqueness and idiosyncrasy, for distinction and self sufficiency, for independence and self expression. Collectivism is the human propensity to agglomerate, to stick together, to assemble, the herd instincts and the group behaviours. Time is the principle which connects both. It is the bridge linking individual and society.
It is an epiphenomenon of society. In other words, it arises only when people assemble and can compare themselves to others. This is not Time in the physical sense, which is discernible through the relative positions and physical states of physical systems. Every human - alone as he may be - is bound to notice it. No, we are discussing the more complex, ritualistic, Social Time. This, admittedly, is a vaguer concept.
It corresponds to human individual and collective memory (biography and history) and to intergenerational interactions. An individual is devoid and bereft of any Social Time notion and feeling if he has no basis for comparison with others and no access to the collective memory or, at least, to the memories of others. In this sense, humans are surprisingly like subatomic particles. The latter also show no Time property. They are Time symmetric in the sense that the equations describing their behaviour and evolution are indifferent to Time. The introduction of negative (backward flowing) Time will not alter the still accurate results.
It is only when masses of particles are gathered that Time is discernible and important in the description of reality. In other words, Time "erupts" or "emerges" as the complexity of physical systems increases (see "Time asymmetry Re-Visited by the same author, 1983, available through UMI. Abstract in: web). Human history (past) its present and, in all likelihood, its future are characterized by an incessant struggle between these principles. One generation witnesses the successful onslaught of individualism and declares, with hubris, the end of history. Another witnesses the "Revolt of the Masses" and produces doomsayers such as Jose Ortega y Glasses.
The 20 th century was and is no exception. True, due to technological innovation, it is the most visible century, more exposed to scrutiny and reactions of shock or elation. Still - as Barbara Tuchman pointedly entitled her masterwork, we are merely a Distant Mirror of other centuries. Or, in the words of Proverbs: "Whatever was, it shall be again." This century witnessed major breakthroughs in both technological progress (a word which should be denuded of its value content) and the dissemination of existing and newly invented technologies. This tended to encourage the individualistic camp in this permanent battle. But people tend to confuse cause and effect.
Man has not turned individualistic because of technology. The latter assisted, in past centuries, in forging alliances and collectives. Agricultural technology encouraged collaboration, not individuation, differentiation or fragmentation. We give direction and meaning to our technologies, not the reverse. The human race opted for increasing isolation and invented TELE-communication.
It fostered the illusion of on-going communication without preserving important elements such as direct human contact, replete with smells, noises, body language and facial expressions. It reduced communication to the exchange of verbal or written information, the bare skeleton of any exchange. The advent of each new technology was preceded by the development of a social tendency or trend. Computers packed more and more number crunching power because people wanted to make other people redundant.
The inventors of the computer explicitly stated that they wanted it to replace humans and are still toying with the idea of artificial intelligence, substituting for humans. The case of robotics is even clearer. These innovations revolutionized the workplace. They were coupled with "lean and mean" management theories and management fads. Re-engineering, downsizing, just in time inventory and production management, outsourcing - all emphasized a trimming of the work force. Whereas once, enterprises were proud of the amount of employment which they generated - today it is cause for shame.
This psychological shift is no less than misanthropic. It manifests itself in other labour market innovations: telecommuting and flexi work, for instance - but also distant learning and all other distant interactions. As with all other social sea changes, the language pertaining to the emotional correlates and the motivation behind these shifts - is highly euphemistic. Where communication is all but minimized - it is called telecommunications. Where it is abolished (human to machine communication) it is amazingly labelled "interactivity"! We are terrified of what is happening: isolation, loneliness, alienation, self absorption, self sufficiency, the disintegration of the social fabric - so we give it nice names, negating the horrific content.
Computers are "user-friendly", when we talk to our computer we are "interacting" and very lonely typing opposite computer screens is called "chatting." We need our fellow humans less and less. We do not see them anymore, they become gradually transparent. Bodiless voices, incorporeal typed messages. Humans are thus dehumanized, reduced to bi-dimensional representations, to functions. This is an extremely dangerous development. Already people tend to confuse reality with its representation through media images.
Actors are thought to be the characters that they play in a TV series, wars are fought with video game - like elegance and sleekness. Even social functions which used to require expertise - and, therefore, the direct interaction of humans - can today be performed by a single person, equipped with the right hardware and software. The internet is the epitome and apex of this last observation. What is the Internet I discussed at great length in my website: web Still...
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Research essay sample on Human Nature Collective Memory
