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Example research essay topic: Labor Force Participation Personal Consumption Expenditures - 5,382 words

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... demand was boosted further by strong global economic activity and by rebuild-ing of oil stocks. In late June, despite an announcement by OPEC that it would boost pro-duction, the WTI spot price reached a new high of almost $ 35 per barrel, but by early July the price had settled back to about $ 30 per barrel. Capital flows in the first quarter of 2000 continued to reflect the relatively strong per-formance of the U. S. economy and transactions associated with global corporate mergers.

Foreign private purchases of U. S. securities remained brisk -- well above the record pace set last year. In addition, the mix of U.

S. securities purchased by foreigners in the first quarter showed a continuation of last year's trend toward smaller holdings of U. S. Treas-ury securities and larger holdings of U. S. agency and corporate securities.

Private-sector foreigners sold more than $ 9 billion in Treasury securities in the first quarter while pur-chasing more than $ 26 billion in agency bonds. Despite a mixed performance of U. S. stock prices, foreign portfolio purchases of U. S. equities exceeded $ 60 billion in the first quarter, more than half of the record annual total set last year.

U. S. purchases of foreign securities remained strong in the first quarter of 2000. Foreign direct investment flows into the United States were robust in the first quar-ter of this year as well. As in the past two years, direct investment inflows have been ele-voted by the extraordinary level of cross-border merger and acquisition activity. Portfolio flows have also been affected by this activity.

For example, in recent years, many of the largest acquisitions have been financed by swaps of equity in the foreign acquiring firm for equity in the U. S. firm being acquired. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that U. S. residents acquired $ 123 billion of foreign equities in this way last year.

Separate data on market transactions indicate that U. S. residents made net purchases of Japanese equities but sold European equities. The latter sales likely reflect a rebalancing of port-lio's after stock swaps. U. S.

direct investment in foreign economies has also remained strong, exceeding $ 30 billion in the first quarter of 2000. Again, a significant portion of this investment was associated with cross-border merger activity. Capital inflows from foreign official sources in the first quarter of this year were sizable -- $ 20 billion, compared with $ 43 billion for all of 1999. As was the case last year, the increase in foreign official reserves in the United States in the first quarter was con-contracted in a relatively few countries. Partial data for the second quarter of 2000 show a small official outflow.

The labor market in early 2000 continued to be characterized by substantial job creation, a historically low level of unemployment, and sizable advances in productivity that have held labor costs in check. The rise in overall nonfarm payroll employment, which totaled more than 1 - 1 / 2 million over the first half of the year, was swelled by the federal gov-ernment's hiring of intermittent workers to conduct the decennial census. Apart from that temporary boost, which accounted for about one-fourth of the net gain in jobs between December and June, nonfarm payroll employment increased an average of 190, 000 per month, somewhat below the robust pace of the preceding four years. Monthly changes in private payrolls were uneven at times during the first half the year, but, on balance, the pace of hiring, while still solid, appears to have moderated be-tween the first and second quarters.

In some industries, such as construction, the pattern appears to have been exaggerated by unseasonably high levels of activity during the win-ter that accelerated hiring that typically would have occurred in the spring. After a robust first quarter, construction employment declined between April and June; on average, hir-ing in this industry over the first half of the year was only a bit slower than the rapid pace that prevailed from 1996 to 1999. However, employment gains in the services industry, particularly in business and health services, were smaller in the second quarter than in the first while job cutbacks occurred in finance, insurance, and real estate after four and one-half years of steady expansion. Nonetheless, strong domestic demand for consumer dur-ables and business equipment, along with support for exports from the pickup in eco-nomic activity abroad, led to a leveling off in manufacturing employment over the first half of 2000 after almost two years of decline. And, with consumer spending brisk, em-ployment at retail establishments, although fluctuating widely from month to month, re-main generally on a solid uptrend over the first half.

The supply of labor increased slowly in recent years relative to the demand for workers. The labor force participation rate was unchanged, on average, at 67. 1 percent from 1997 to 1999; that level was just 0. 6 percentage point higher than at the beginning of the expansion in 1990. The stability of the participation rate over the 1997 - 99 period was somewhat surprising because the incentives to enter the workforce seemed powerful: Hiring was strong, real wages were rising more rapidly than earlier in the expansion, and individuals perceived that jobs were plentiful. However, the robust demand for new workers instead led to a substantial decline in unemployment, and the civilian jobless rate fell from 5 - 1 / 4 percent at the beginning of 1997 to just over 4 percent at the end of 1999. This year, the labor force participation rate ratcheted up sharply over the first four months of the year before dropping back in recent months as employment slowed.

The spike in participation early this year may have been a response to ready availability of job opportunities, but Census hiring may also have temporarily attracted some individuals into the workforce. On net, growth of labor demand and supply have been more balanced so far this year, and the unemployment rate has held near its thirty-year low of 4 percent. At midyear, very few signs of a significant easing in labor market pressures have sur-faced. Employers responding to various private surveys of business conditions report that they have been unable to hire as many workers as they would like because skilled work-ers are in short supply and competition from other firms is keen. Those concerns about hiring have persisted even as new claims for unemployment insurance have drifted up from very low levels in the past several months, suggesting that some employers may be making workforce adjustments in response to slower economic activity. Reports by businesses that workers are in short supply and that they are under pressure to increase compensation to be competitive in hiring and retaining employees became more intense early this year.

However, the available statistical indicators are providing some-what mixed and inconsistent signals of whether a broad acceleration in wage and benefit costs is emerging. Hourly compensation, as measured by the employment cost index (ECI) for private nonfarm businesses, increased sharply during the first quarter to a level more than 4 - 1 / 2 percent above a year earlier. Before that jump, year-over-year changes in the ECI compensation series had remained close to 3 - 1 / 2 percent for three years. How-ever, an alternative measure of compensation per hour, calculated as part of the produc-tivity and cost series, which has shown higher rates of increase than the ECI in recent years, slowed in the first quarter of this year.

For the nonfarm business sector, compensate-tion per hour in the first quarter was 4 - 1 / 4 percent higher than a year earlier; in the first quarter of 1999, the four-quarter change was 5 - 1 / 4 percent. Part of the acceleration in the ECI in the first quarter was the result of a sharp step-up in the wage and salary component of compensation change. While higher rates of straight-time pay were widespread across industry and occupational groups, the most striking increase occurred in the finance, insurance, and real estate industry where the year-over-year change in wages and salaries jumped from about 4 percent for the period ending in December 1999 to almost 8 - 1 / 2 percent for the period ending in March of this year. The sudden spike in wages in that sector could be related to commissions that are tied directly to activity levels in the industry and, thus, would not represent a lasting in-fluence on wage inflation. For other industries, wages and salaries accelerated moder-ately, which might appear plausible in light of reports that employers are experiencing shortages of some types of skilled workers. However, the uptrend in wage inflation that surfaced in the first-quarter ECI has not been so readily apparent in the monthly data on average hourly earnings of production or non supervisory workers, which are available through June.

Although average hourly earnings increased at an annual rate of 4 percent between December and June, the June level of hourly wages stood 3 - 3 / 4 percent higher than a year earlier, the same as the increase between June 1998 and June 1999. While employers in many industries appear to have kept wage increases moderate, they may be facing greater pressures from rising costs of employee benefits. The ECI measure of benefit costs rose close to 3 - 1 / 2 percent during 1999, a percentage point faster than during 1998; these costs accelerated sharply further in the first quarter of this year to a level 5 - 1 / 2 percent above a year earlier. Much of last year's pickup in benefit costs was associated with faster rates of increase in employer contributions to health insurance, and the first-quarter ECI figures indicated another step-up in this component of costs. Private survey information and available measures of prices in the health care industry suggest that the upturn in the employer costs of health care benefits is associated with both higher costs of health care and employers' willingness to offer attractive benefit packages in or-der to compete for workers in a tight labor market. Indeed, employers have been report-ing that they are enhancing compensation packages with a variety of benefits in order to hire and retain employees.

Some of these offerings are included in the ECI; for instance, the ECI report for the first quarter noted a pickup in supplemental forms of pay, such as overtime and non production bonuses, and in paid leave. However, other benefits cited by employers, including stock options, hiring and retention bonuses, and discounts on store purchases, are not measured in the ECI. The productivity and costs measure of hourly compensation may capture more of the non-wage costs that employers incur, but even for that series, the best estimates of employer compensation costs are available only after business reports for unemployment insurance and tax records are tabulated and folded into the annual revisions of the national income and product accounts. Because businesses have realized sizable gains in worker productivity, compensate-tion increases have not generated significant pressure on overall costs of production. Output per hour in the nonfarm business sector posted another solid advance in the first quarter, rising to a level 3 - 3 / 4 percent above a year earlier and offsetting much of the rise in hourly compensation over the period. For nonfinancial corporations, the subset of the nonfarm business sector that excludes types of businesses for which output is measured less directly, the 4 percent year-over-year increase in productivity held unit labor costs unchanged.

With the further robust increases in labor productivity recently, the average rise in output per hour in the nonfarm business sector since early 1997 has stepped up further to 3 percent from the 2 percent pace of the 1995 - 97 period. What has been particularly im-pressure is that the acceleration of productivity in the past several years has exceeded the pickup in output growth over the period and, thus, does not appear to be simply a cyclical response to more rapidly rising demand. Rather, businesses are likely realizing substan-tial and lasting payoffs from their investment in equipment and processes that embody the technological advances of the past several years. Rates of increase in the broader measures of prices moved up further in early 2000. After having accelerated from 1 percent during 1998 to 1 - 1 / 2 percent last year, the chain-type price index for GDP -- prices of goods and services that are produced domestically -- increased at an annual rate of 3 percent in the first quarter of this year. The upswing in inflation for goods and services purchased by consumers, businesses, and governments has been somewhat greater: The chain-type price index for gross domestic purchases rose at an annual rate of 3 - 1 / 2 percent in the first quarter after having increased about 2 per-cent during 1999 and just 3 / 4 percent during 1998.

The pass-through of the steep rise in the cost of imported crude oil that began in early 1999 and continued into the first half of this year has been the principal factor in the acceleration of the prices of goods and services purchased. The effect of higher energy costs on domestic prices has been most apparent in indexes of prices paid by consumers. After having risen 12 percent during 1999, the chain-type price index for energy items in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) jumped at an annual rate of 35 percent in the first quarter of 2000; the first-quarter rise in the energy component of the CPI was similar. Swings in energy prices continued to have a noticeable effect on overall measures of consumer prices in the second quarter. After world oil prices dropped back temporarily in the spring, the domestic price of motor fuel dropped in April and May, and consumer prices for energy, as measured by the CPI, retraced some of the first-quarter increase. As a result, the overall CPI was little changed over the two months.

However, with prices of crude oil having climbed again, the bounce back in prices of motor fuel led to a sharp in-crease in the CPI for energy in June. In addition, with strong demand pressing against available supplies, consumer prices of natural gas continued to rise rapidly in the second quarter. In contrast to the steep rise in energy prices, the CPI for food has risen slightly less than other non-energy prices so far this year. Higher petroleum costs also fed through into higher producer costs for a number of intermediate materials. Rising prices for inputs such as chemicals and paints contributed importantly to the acceleration in the producer price index for intermediate materials ex-cluding food and energy from about 1 - 3 / 4 percent during 1999 to an annual rate of 3 - 1 / 2 percent over the first half of this year. Upward pressure on input prices was also apparent for construction materials, although these have eased more recently.

Prices of imported industrial supplies also picked up early this year owing to higher costs of petroleum in-puts. Core consumer price inflation has also been running a little higher so far this year. The chain-type price index for personal consumption expenditures other than food and energy increased at an annual rate of 2 - 1 / 4 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of 1 - 1 / 2 percent during 1999. Based on the monthly estimates of PCE prices in April and May, core PCE price inflation looks to have been just a little below its first-quarter rate. After having risen just over 2 percent between the fourth quarter of 1998 and the fourth quarter of 1999, the CPI excluding food and energy increased at an annual rate of 2 - 1 / 4 percent in the first quarter of 2000 and at a 2 - 3 / 4 percent rate in the second quar-ter. In part, the rise in core inflation likely reflects the indirect effects of higher energy costs on the prices of a variety of goods and services, although these effects are difficult to quantify with precision.

Moreover, prices of non-oil imported goods, which had been declining from late 1995 through the middle of last year, continued to trend up early this year. The pickup in core inflation, as measured by the CPI, has occurred for both con-sumer goods and services. Although price increases for nondurable goods excluding food and energy moderated, prices of consumer durables, which had fallen between 1996 and 1999, were little changed, on balance, over the first half of this year. The CPI continued to register steep declines for household electronic goods and computers, but prices of other types of consumer durables have increased, on net, so far this year. The rate of in-crease in the prices of non-energy consumer services has also been somewhat faster; the CPI for these items increased at an annual rate of 3 - 1 / 2 percent during the first two quar-ters of this year compared with a rise of 2 - 3 / 4 percent in 1999. Larger increases in the CPI measures of rent and of medical services have contributed importantly to this accel-eration.

Another factor has been a steeper rise in airfares, which have been boosted in part to cover the higher cost of fuel. In addition to slightly higher core consumer price inflation, the national income and product accounts measure of prices for private fixed investment goods shows that the downtrend in prices for business fixed investment items has been interrupted. Most nota-bly, declines in the prices of computing equipment became much smaller in the final quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year. A series of disruptions to the supply of component inputs to computing equipment has combined with exceptionally strong demand to cut the rate of price decline for computers, as measured by the chain-type price index, to an annual rate of 12 percent late last year and early this year -- half the pace of the preceding three and one-half years. At the same time, prices of other types of equipment and software continued to be little changed, and the chain-type index for non-residential structures investment remained on a moderate uptrend. In contrast, the further upward pressure on construction costs at the beginning of the year continued to push the price index for residential construction higher; after having accelerated from 3 percent to 3 - 1 / 2 percent between 1998 and 1999, this index increased at an annual rate of 4 - 1 / 4 per-cent in the first quarter of 2000.

Although actual inflation moved a bit higher over the first half of 2000, inflation expectations have been little changed. Households responding to the Michigan SRC sur-vey in June were sensitive to the adverse effect of higher energy prices on their real in-come but seemed to believe that the inflationary shock would be short-lived. The median of their expected change in CPI inflation over the coming twelve months was 2. 9 percent. Moreover, they remained optimistic that inflation would remain at about that rate over the longer run, reporting a 2. 8 percent median of expected inflation during the next five to ten years. In both instances, their expectations are essentially the same as at the end of 1999, although the year-ahead expectations are above the lower levels that had prevailed in 1997 and early 1998. Conditions in markets for private credit firmed on balance since the end of 1999.

Against a backdrop of continued economic vitality in the United States and a tighter monetary policy stance, private borrowing rates are higher, on net, particularly those charged to riskier borrowers. In addition, banks have tightened terms and standards on most types of loans. Higher real interest rates -- as measured based on inflation expectations derived from surveys and from yields on the Treasury's inflation-indexed securities -- account for the bulk of the increase in interest rates this year, with short-term real rates having in-creased the most. Rising market interest rates and heightened uncertainties about corpo-rate prospects, especially with regard to the high-tech sector, have occasionally damp-end flows in the corporate bond market and have weighed on the equity market, which has, at times, experienced considerable volatility. Through mid-July, the broad-based Wilshire 5000 equity index was up approximately 3 percent for the year. As the year began, with worries related to the century date change out of the way, partici-pants in the fixed-income market turned their attention to the signs of continued strength in domestic labor and product markets, and they quickly priced in the possibility of a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy.

Both private and Treasury yields rose considerably. In the latter part of January, however, Treasury yields plummeted, espe-cially those on longer-dated securities, as the announced details of the Treasury's debt buyback program and upwardly revised forecasts of federal budget surpluses led inves-tors to focus increasingly on the prospects for a diminishing supply of Treasury secure-ties. A rise in both nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields in response to strong economic data and tighter monetary policy in April and May was partly offset by supply factors and by occasional safe haven flows from the volatile equity market. Since late May, market interest rates have declined as market participants have interpreted the in-coming economic data as evidence that monetary policy might not have to be tightened as much as had been previously expected. On balance, while Treasury bill rates and yields on shorter-dated notes have risen 15 to 80 basis points since the beginning of the year, intermediate- and long-term Treasury yields have declined 5 to 55 basis points. In the corporate debt market, by contrast, bond yields have risen 10 to 70 basis points so far this year.

Forecasts of steep declines in the supply of longer-dated Treasuries have combined with tighter monetary policy conditions to produce an inverted Treasury yield curve, starting with the two-year maturity. In contrast, yield curves elsewhere in the U. S. fixed-income market generally have not inverted.

In the interest rate swap market, for instance, the yield curve has remained flat to upward sloping for maturities as long as ten years, and the same has been true for yield curves for the most actively traded corporate bonds. Nonetheless, private yield curves are flatter than usual, suggesting that, although supply considerations have played a potentially important role in the inversion of the Treasury yield curve this year, investors' forecasts of future economic conditions have also been a contributing factor. In particular, private yield curves are consistent with forecasts of a moderation in economic growth and expectations that the economy will be on a sustain-able, non-inflationary track, with little further monetary policy tightening. The disconnect between longer-term Treasury and private yields as a consequence of supply factors in the Treasury market is distorting readings from yield spreads.

For instance, taken at face value, the spread of BBB corporate yields over the yield on the ten-year Treasury note would suggest that conditions in the corporate bond market so far in 2000 are worse than those during the financial market turmoil of 1998. In contrast, the spread of the BBB yield over the ten-year swap rate paints a very different picture, with spreads up this year but below their peaks in 1998. Although the swap market is still not as liquid as the Treasury securities market, and swap rates are occasionally subject to supply-driven distortions, such distortions have been less pronounced and more short-lived than those affecting the Treasury securities market of late, making swap rates a bet-ter benchmark for judging the behavior of other corporate yields. Aware that distortions to Treasury yields are likely to become more pronounced as more federal debt is paid down, market participants have had to look for alternatives to the pricing and hedging roles traditionally played by Treasuries in U. S.

financial markets. In addition to interest rate swaps, which have featured prominently in the list of alterna-tives to Treasuries, debt securities issued by the three government-sponsored housing agencies -- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks -- have been used in both pricing and hedging. The three housing agencies have continued to issue a sub-spatial volume of debt this year in an attempt to capture benchmark status, and the intro-duction in March of futures and options contracts based on five- and ten-year notes issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may help enhance the liquidity of the agency securities market. Nonetheless, the market for agency debt has been affected by some uncertainty this year regarding the agencies's pencil relationship with the government. Both the Treasury and the Federal Reserve have suggested that it would be appropriate for the Congress to consider whether the special standing of these institutions continues to pro-mote the public interest, and pending legislation would, among other things, restructure the oversight of these agencies and reexamine their lines of credit with the U. S.

Treasury. The implementation of monetary policy, too, has had to adapt to the anticipated pay downs of marketable federal debt. Recognizing that there may be limitations on its ability to rely as much as previously on transactions in Treasury securities to meet the reserve needs of depositories and to expand the supply of currency, the FOMC decided at its March 2000 meeting to facilitate until its first meeting in 2001 the Trading Desk's ability to continue to accept a broader range of collateral in its repurchase transactions. The initial approvals to help expand the collateral pool were granted in August 1999 as part of the Federal Reserve's efforts to better manage possible disruptions to financial markets related to the century date change. At the March 2000 meeting, the Committee also initiated a study to consider alter-native asset classes and selection criteria that could be appropriate for the System Open Market Account (SOMA) should the size of the Treasury securities market continue to decline. For the period before the completion and review of such a study, the Committee discussed, at its May meeting, some changes in the management of the System's portfolio of Treasury securities in an environment of decreasing Treasury debt.

The changes aim to prevent the System from coming to hold high and rising proportions of new Treasury debt issues. They will also help the SOMA to limit any further lengthening of the average maturity of its portfolio while continuing to meet long-run reserve needs to the greatest extent possible through outright purchases of Treasury securities. The SOMA will cap the rollover of its existing holdings at Treasury auctions and will engage in secondary market purchases according to a schedule that effectively will result in a greater percentage of holdings of shorter-term security issues than of longer-dated ones. The schedule ranges from 35 percent of an individual issue for Treasury bills to 15 percent for longer-term bonds. These changes were announced to the public on July 5, replacing a procedure in which all maturing holdings were rolled over and in which coupon purchases were spread evenly across the yield curve. Major equity indexes have posted small gains so far this year amid considerable volatile-ity.

Fluctuations in technology stocks have been particularly pronounced: After having reached a record high in March -- 24 percent above its 1999 year-end value -- the Nasdaq composite index, which is heavily weighted toward technology shares, swung widely and by mid-July was up 5 percent for the year. Given its surge in the second half of 1999, the mid-July level of the Nasdaq was about 60 percent above its mid- 1999 reading. The broader S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 indexes have risen close to 3 percent since the be-ginning of the year and are up about 10 percent and 13 percent, respectively, from mid- 1999. Corporate earnings reports have, for the most part, exceeded expectations, and pro-junctions of future earnings continue to be revised higher. However, the increase in interest rates since the beginning of the year likely has restrained the rise in equity prices. In addi-tion, growing unease about the lofty valuations reached by technology shares and rising default rates in the corporate sector may have given some investors a better appreciation of the risks of holding stocks in general.

Reflecting the uncertainty about the future course of the equity market, expected and actual volatilizes of stock returns rose substan-tially in the spring. At that time, volatility implied by options on the Nasdaq 100 index surpassed even the elevated levels reached during the financial market turmoil of 1998. Higher volatility and greater investor caution had a marked effect on public equity offerings. The pace of initial public offerings has fallen off considerably in recent months from its brisk first-quarter rate, with some offerings being canceled or postponed and oth-ers being priced well short of earlier expectations. On the other hand, households' enter-spam for equity mutual funds, especially those funds that invest in the technology and international sectors, remains relatively high, although it appears to have faded some after the run-up in stock market volatility in the spring. Following a first-quarter surge, net in-flows to stock funds moderated substantially in the second quarter but still were above last year's average pace.

The total debt of the U. S. household, government, and nonfinancial business sectors is estimated to have increased at close to a 5 - 1 / 2 percent annual rate in the first half of 2000. Outside the federal government sector, debt expanded at an annual rate of roughly 9 - 1 / 2 percent, buoyed by strength in household and business borrowing. Continued declines in federal debt have helped to ease the pressure on available savings and have facilitated the rapid expansion of nonfederal debt outstanding: The federal government paid down $ 218 billion of debt over the first half of 2000, compared with pay downs of $ 56 billion and $ 101 billion in the first six months of calendar years 1998 and 1999 respectively. Depository institutions have continued to play an important role in meeting the strong demands for credit by businesses and households.

Adjusted for mark-to-market accounting rules, credit extended by commercial banks rose 11 - 1 / 2 percent in the first half of 2000. This advance was paced by a brisk expansion of loans, which grew at an annual rate of nearly 13 percent over this period. Bank credit increased in part because some businesses sought bank loans as an alternative to a less receptive corporate bond market. In addition, the underlying strength of household spending helped boost the de-mand for consumer and mortgage loans. Banks' holdings of consumer and mortgage loans were also supported by a slower pace of securitization's this year. In the housing sector, for instance, the rising interest rate environment has kept the demand for adjust-able-rate mortgages relatively elevated, and banks tend to hold these securities on their books rather than securities them.

Banks have tightened terms and standards on loans further this year, especially in the business sector, where some lenders have expressed concerns about a more uncertain corporate outlook. Bank regulators have noted that depository institutions need to take particular care in evaluating lending risks to account for possible changes in the overall macroeconomic environment and in conditions in securities markets. Growth of the monetary aggregates over the first half of 2000 has been buffeted by sev-eral special factors. The unwinding of the buildups in liquidity that occurred in late 1999 before the century date change depressed growth in the aggregates early this year. Subse-quently, M 2 rebounded sharply in anticipation of outside tax payments in the spring and then ran off as those payments cleared. On net, despite the cumulative firming of mone-tary policy since June 1999, M 2 expanded at a relatively robust, 6 percent, annual rate during the first half of 2000 -- the same pace as in 1999 -- supported by the rapid expansion of nominal spending and income.

M 2 velocity -- the ratio of nominal income to M 2 -- has increased over the first half of this year, consistent with its historical relationship with the interest forgone ("opportu-nity cost") from holding M 2. As usual, rates offered on many of the components of M 2 have not track


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