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Two hundred Malthus MALTHUS Two hundred years ago, Thomas Robert Malthus, a British economist, wrote An Essay on the Principle of Population in which he argued that the world population would increase faster than the food supply, with disastrous results for the general human welfare. A world population of 250 million at the time of Christ has now grown to 5. 7 billion in spite of wars, plagues, famine, and epidemics. World food production has been keeping pace with population growth until recently. If the world food supply had been distributed equally to each member of society in the mid 1980 s, the population of 4. 7 billion would have been allocated a weekly diet of 11 pounds of meat, grain and fish per person. In todays world, a billion people have been added to the population and the food supply has decreased to less than 10 pounds per week per person. The typical weekly diet in the U.
S. is about 17 pounds, which means a significant number of the worlds people are eating considerably less than the average of 10 pounds per week. A world population of 10 to 11 billion by mid century will have an individual allocation of 6 to 7 pounds per week, equivalent to the diet of todays members of society living in poverty. Food projections are extremely uncertain since natural disasters are unpredictable and may increase if the forecasted effects of global warming materialize. Also, environmental degradation is increasing while water allocations are decreasing.
Society will not be suddenly surprised by a crisis point at which food supplies are no longer adequate. Todays isolated anarchy and famine (which is politically inspired) in Africa could easily turn into a world wide sustenance inspired problem during the first half of the next century. Humans are the only creatures endowed with the ability to evaluate the consequences of their own actions. Since the problem transcends all aspects of the worlds religious and political structures, it must be addressed by all speakers from the pulpit or podium who can influence the public mind set. OUR FERTILE SOCIETY While the annual population growth seems to have reached a plateau, the the world has added 85 to 90 million people every year for the last decade.
Recent regional decreases in population growth rates coupled with dramatic gains in agricultural production mask the severity of the problem which is just now becoming evident in terms of real numbers. A world population of 250 million at the beginning of Christianity has now grown to 5. 7 billion in spite of wars, plagues, famine, and epidemics. Unrestrained, this growth could continue until world population approaches 11 billion in the year 2050. (Using currently assumed declining growth rates). An unchecked continuation of the AIDS epidemic would infect 320 million people by the year 2050 but would have a negligible effect on the total food requirements of the 11, 000 million. Each month the world adds another New York City. The 300, 000 Somalis who died of starvation in late 1992 were replaced in only 29 hours.
HOW OUR SOCIETY EATS TODAY The worlds diet is composed basically of three food systems: grain, meat and fish. Grain (wheat, corn and rice) consumed directly supply about 70 percent of human food energy. Unlike perishable fruits and vegetables, grain can be stored over the winter months and is therefore a useful measure of food resources. Grain is also used as feed to supplement the production of meat (beef, pork and poultry) and ocean catch fish. Affluent societies have diets high in animal protein while subsistence level societies rely primarily on the starchy foods of grain products.
In general, it appears that an affluent society lives on about 17 pounds per week per person while people at the poverty level subsist on about a pound a day, or seven pounds per week per person. OUR FUTURE DIET World food production has been keeping pace with population growth until recently. Actually, the food available per person has increased each year until the mid 80 s, but has been declining for the last ten years. Food projections into the future become increasingly uncertain for the later years because: a) Natural disasters are unpredictable, usually not included in projections, but could become more frequent if the forecasted effects of global warming materialize. b) The ability to control environmental degradation is becoming increasingly difficult. c) The impact of problems with allocating scarce water are just now beginning to be appreciated.
d) The depletion of non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels (gas, oil, etc. ) needed for farming and distribution will contribute to the increasing costs of dwindling food supplies. Grain Harvest Projections World farmland planted in grain increased until 1980 and then started to decline because of environmental factors such as soil erosion, water logging and salting of irrigated land, air pollution, and water shortages. Urban sprawl reduces farmland at the rate of one acre for each five births. The loss of farmland has been compensated for by increasing the yield per acre by the development of disease and drought resistant grains which respond well to fertilizers. High yield, early maturing wheat and rice strains now permit multi-cropping (i. e.
winter wheat and summer rice in the same field). However, there are growing indications that efforts to increase crop yields have peaked. Available crop varieties have approached the agronomic limits of response to fertilizer and its use has declined for five consecutive years. Large dams built to irrigate arid desert lands are trapping 25 to 75 percent of the sediments normally carried downstream to become farmland seasonal nutrient replenishment. The trapped sediment also significantly reduce the dams irrigation water storage capacity. The annual increase in grain harvest kept pace with population growth until 1990.
However, the combined effects of loss of farmland and peaking of yield per acre are beginning to impose limitations. Optimistic (but hopefully realistic) assumptions predict the annual harvest to be about two billion tons throughout the 1990 s and slowly increasing to about 2. 3 billion tons per year by 2030. 60 to 65 percent of the grain harvest is consumed directly by humans while the remainder is used as feed grain to supplement meat production. Meat Production Nearly all of the worlds rangelands are now fully used and grazing capacity has been pushed to the limit. Recent large increases in the use of pork and poultry have been helping meat production keep pace with population growth. World annual meat production is now about 200 million tons, with 70 percent from rangelands and 30 percent grain fed. Little, if any, growth can be expected from the rangelands, but it is assumed the grain fed meat will continue to increase slowly (as the grain harvest increases) to about 225 million tons in 2030.
Pigs and chickens are much more efficient than cattle for converting grain to meat. Feed lot beef require seven pounds of grain to add a pound of live weight while pigs need only four pounds and chickens only two for comparable results. Fish Future Not Promising Large fleets using fish finders and miles long nylon nets coupled with destruction of spawning grounds have contributed to a serious over harvesting of the oceans. Total annual fish production has been about 110 million tons since 1990. Of this total, approximately 13 percent is from fish farms. It will be fortunate if the wild catch remains constant while grain fed fish from aquatic farms increase slowly as the grain harvest increases.
An additional five million tons for a total of 115 million tons by 2030 appears optimistic at this time. Traditionally desirable fish such as cod, haddock and tuna have been decimated and are being replaced with smaller species such as mackerel, pilchard and pollock. Putting It on a Personal Level A better feeling for societies prosperity can be developed with numbers related to a personal creature comfort, like eating. Food available for an individuals weekly diet can be derived by dividing the large numbers used for food projections by the large numbers used for population projections. Weekly diets (grain, meat and fish) in terms of pounds per person peaked at 11 pounds in the mid 80 s, have been declining since, and could drop to a poverty level of 7 pounds per person per week by 2040. A miraculous food supply increase of 50 percent would delay reaching the poverty level only one generation.
GLOBAL WARMING TRENDS In the past four decades, the world has more than tripled the consumption of fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal). This in turn has increased the atmospheric concentration of green house gases (carbon dioxide) by 15 %, and the average temperature at the Earth s surface has increased almost one full degree (Fahrenheit). While this is a seemingly insignificant increase, the ten hottest years in recorded human history have all occurred in the eighties and nineties. A small rise in atmospheric temperature significantly expands the capacity of large volumes of air holding water vapor accumulated from summertime evaporation of lakes and oceans.
Moisture laden warm air mixing with cooler arctic air in the fall and winter create intensified weather conditions in the form of increased precipitation and high winds. Since the early eighties, economic losses from world-wide weather related disasters have increased six fold. While the realities of global warming are still under debate, historical data would seem to raise questions about whatever optimism is reflected in future food projections. FUTURE LIVING STANDARDS While civilization is stratified into many layers, only two are assumed here: the affluent who consume 17 pounds of food per person per week, and the less fortunate in poverty who can afford only 7 pounds per person per week. (These definitions of affluence and poverty are based solely on typical diets for countries considered to be in or near those categories. ) At the peak of food availability for individuals in the mid 80 s, there were 3 people in poverty for every 2 people living in affluence and the average consumption was 11 pounds per person per week. As food becomes scarce and more expensive, a larger portion of an individuals resources must go to sustenance and the poverty ranks increase. The total food available in today s society has declined to 10 pounds per person per week and there are 5 people in poverty for every 2 in affluence.
The total number of affluent people in the world peaked at 2 billion in 1990 and is now about 1. 7 billion. Predictions such as these are always subject to argument. Similar predictions of earlier disasters have been wrong. Exact numbers are not important, the message is that major problems appear imminent in the first half of the next century. Today s Youger Generations are in Trouble Society will not be suddenly surprised by a crisis point at which food supplies are no longer adequate.
Symptoms of the crisis will begin to appear long before the crisis is reached. Todays youger generations are being handed the staggering problem of a growing imbalance between food and people. Humans are the only creatures endowed with the ability to evaluate the consequences of their own actions. Since the problem transcends all aspects of the worlds religious and political structures, it must be addressed by all speakers from the pulpit or podium who can influence the public mind set. There is only one certainty, a sustainable society will be achieved during the next century, either orderly by conscious decision or chaotically by nature. The first step toward solving a problem is to define it in terms the people effected can understand.
A beginning may be the formation of a World Population Bureau which issues periodic media news reports similar to a Weather Bureau.
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