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... past few years. However he has managed to maintain strong economic relations with both China and the United States. Another problem with our policy towards this situation is the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) and the current proposal of the Taiwan Securities Act. These two acts have contradicted the United States policies when it comes to the aforementioned situation. The US has pledged itself to protect Taiwan in the face of an attack from the mainland.
If you consider this for a second the following conclusion can be drawn: if we recognize "one china" why should we risk war with China to protect Taiwan, a part of China? In looking at the current situation to explain the matter, you have to look at the two-year period between 1995 and 1996. In January of 1995 The Chinese President presented Taiwan with an eight-point plan for a peaceful resolution to reunification, it was rebutted by the new Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui with a six-point response. This upset the Chinese president a great deal and he started a military strategy to bring Taiwan back under Chinese control. In early may Lees petition to the US for a diplomatic visit was approved by the Congress, but not under the diplomatic intent (Leng 46). He was allowed to visit his alma mater in the States.
As Lee set out on a secret diplomatic visit around the world the Chinese postponed cross-strait talks. The ambassadors from the three countries returned home with no progress to report. When Lees intentions came to light the Chinese announced military exercises in the strait. China conducts missile exercises and fire missiles into waters north of Taipei. The Chinese claimed that they were running missiles exercises in retaliation for lees promoting independence in Taiwan while abandoning a commitment to unification. The Chinese began military exercises in the strait and announced an area that covers all of Taiwan.
This caused financial unrest in Taiwan. The Taiwanese attempted to obtain a seat in the UN with a bid using the name of the Republic of China on Taiwan. It failed to be voted on and Taiwan was denied membership again. As the Chinese began to increase their missile and military exercises, Washington decided to send American carries to the region as a gesture of friendship to china and demonstration of American naval power. On November 17, 1995 three days of talks began in Beijing between the US and China.
The two countries agreed to resume a program of high military contacts and to exchange top military officers the following year. After the meeting the defense department issued a statement (Ka 106). It stated that the US stands for a peaceful resolution of disputes across the Taiwan Strait, and any use of force by China against Taiwan would be a serious mistake. Over the next year China and Taiwan go through a series of military standoffs and at times the US sends carrier groups into the area as a warning to the Chinese.
China continues its intimidation policy towards Taiwan, but it fails to produce the desired outcome. This brings me to the policy triangle between the three nations. For the past fifty years the US has changed its policy position on Taiwan more than once. The problem of never agreeing to Chinas claim regarding Taiwan has done little to help the situation. The new twist in this problem was the Clinton administrations foreign policy, or should we say a lack of an effective one. Clinton has stuck to the Nixon communiques as his shell for his policy, but he has taken it a step forward, by adding that he recognizes "one China" with two standards.
Clintons policy on Taiwan lacked consistency. He has stated that his administration has a one china policy and that he does not support Taiwan's independence Although this is his stance he has come to it not by means of clear decision making, but by threat of the truth being uncovered concerning his illegal campaign contributions from Beijing. He has compromised his policies in an attempt to pacify the Chinese and keep this issue on the back burner. Clinton therefore has done a poor job when it comes to Taiwan.
This policy triangle at first was hard to decipher, but after researching it, it is apparent that it is of great importance on many levels. Taiwan possesses a great economic structure, while China is only beginning to build one with the recent reacquisition of Hong Kong. In looking at the whole picture, maybe Taiwan is the final piece in Chinas puzzle in becoming an economic superpower (Ka 108). China has implemented "one China", two standard systems in Hong Kong and it is currently working well.
So one could ask: what keeps Taiwan from returning to China? I think the answer to that question is a lot harder than the question itself. First of all, one has to take a look at Taiwan's peculiar history that I alluded to in the beginning of the paper. It has never been a colony or a true part of China, and the fact that complicates the whole situation even further is that Taiwan is now a democracy. Its democratic status has clearly required a new sort of understanding between China and Taiwan and the expectations placed on the US role in this tripartite relationship. The question is: where to go from here?
If the United States tries to maintain the structure of the of the three Sino-American communiques and Taiwan Relations act it would be impossible for the US to come to a conclusion on this issue. I am not implying that we should pick a side; it is not that simple. It is possible for China and Taiwan to reach a peaceful resolution to this problem. A resolution that will redefine what the two sides should expect from the US is not the best policy either.
This would allow the Chinese and Taiwanese to figure out what is best for them, not what is best for the US. If a cross strait agreement occurs it is likely to come in a two-phase process. First as interim period has to be allotted and Taiwan's quest for acknowledgement has to be granted and a longer commitment to a cross-strait dialogue has to be maintained for the purpose of the goal, namely, reunification. One major drawback and source of controversy here that may never be resolved is that any cross strait understanding would have to be based on the principle of one China. This would defer the experiment until the Hong Kong experiment results are going to become clear.
It would also give Taiwan what they have wanted, namely, the official recognition of a political actor in the UN system. With all of this established, I would like to now address the US role in the situation. United States and other countries in the region that would like to see a peaceful resolution to this conflict will pick the role of mediators in a cross-strait dialogue. The US could prove to be helpful in the process if it is not complicated by its frozen view of Taiwan status for the past century. In keeping up with the legal framework of the three communiques and the TRA, which governs the US policy between China and Taiwan, it could present itself to be useful in helping both sides to reach mutually acceptable agreement. However the Taiwanese democracy requires the US to rethink its interpretation of its policy towards China and Taiwan.
The main principle here is that the US supports reunification by mutual consent. The US has an obligation to Taiwan in the regard that it is a democracy. It cannot and should not turn its back on a fellow democracy; the effects could be very destructive to our foreign policy. With all parties in agreement that a peaceful resolution is desired over a military exercise in what could lead to a major war it seems more important to cease the implementation of our current policy format in this area and institute a new one using a different angle.
We should push both parties through all diplomatic channels to work out a resolution now, before some situation occurs that might not be that easy to remedy. That is how I look at the situation; if the Chinese wanted Taiwan they could take it. It could have control over the island before we could throw a serious response at them. This however is not the case. China wants Taiwan that is established, but they know they can wait for a long time before they get the desired island. In a military comparison Taiwan realizes it has little chance of fending off an invasion, and has come to accept the US pledge to help them.
In looking at all the negative aspects this issue has brought to light, there is one case of silver lining that we can point out here, namely, the Taiwanese Democracy. This achievement has had a large impact on the situation. It is also one of the reasons why China has not invaded. It is difficult to guess where the situation is going to go in the next few years. It seems to me that the two main players here have been fighting over this issue for the last seventy years, and it is unlikely to end anytime soon. In looking at possible outcomes I would surmise that reunification is possible, although unlikely at this point.
Another possibility is that little will be accomplished in the next few years; this is the most probable conclusion. Then there is always the worst-case scenario; War would break out between China and the US. That would be a terrible conclusion to this policy Triangle, but it cannot be ruled out. At this point I would like to approach the issue that is closely related to the aforementioned Triangle, namely, the issue of Chinas joining WTO. Although at the first site it appears that China is going to benefit from joining WTO yet in the given situation Chinese are going to be faced with certain drawbacks. Chinas challenges are rather huge in this matter.
Chinas economic nationalists fiercely oppose the process of entry, presenting their argument the essence of which is the following: joining puts China at risk of being exploited and becoming vulnerable to international markets. If economic problems of that kind are bound to occur this is going to negatively impact the relations of China with the United States, which in its turn is going to bring yet another twist to Triangle story. Also, there is no doubt that economies of Taiwan and China will become more integrated after becoming WTO members. Taiwan is in the process of restructuring aimed at lowering manufacturing costs, which is done by moving offshore.
The destination of choice has been the mainland, even before the WTO agreements. The question is how this increasing interdependency will affect China's treatment of Taiwan, and whether it will strengthen or weaken the political support in Taiwan for accepting a status subordinate to China's central government in Beijing as required by Beijing's "one country, two systems" formula. China could try to resolve trade issues through internal negotiations as it does with Hong Kong. Certainly, this would be make the benefits of joining for Taiwan not as feasible, since in this case, it would no longer be treated as separate entity. Also, China could use WTO to conduct relations with Taiwan, such as implementing direct trade links. Therefore, it is beneficial for the US if China and Taiwan will cooperate together in order to resolve their conflict.
The WTO, as an international framework of great significance seems to be a useful economic and political device for that purpose. Bibliography: 1. web: The Taiwan Question and Reunification of China 2. Taiwan Affairs Office & Information Office State Council the People's Republic of China August 1993, Beijing: web 3. 96032: Taiwan: U. S. Policy Choices: web 4.
web 5. web 6. Leng, Tse-Kang. (1996). The Taiwan-China connection: democracy and development across the Taiwan Straits.
Boulder, Colo. Westview Press 7. Zhiling Lin and Robinson, Thomas W. (1994) Beijing, Taipei, and Hong Kong Washington, D. C: AEI Press 8.
China and the Taiwan issue / edited by Hungdah Chiu. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1979. 9. Ka, Chih-ming. (1995). Japanese colonialism in Taiwan: land tenure, development, and dependency, 1895 - 1945.
Boulder, CO: Westview Press
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