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Example research essay topic: Website N P People Who Live - 2,206 words

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Global Warming: a True Phenomenon That Threatens Our Delicate Ecosystem It seemed nothing could forecast heat and drought that stroke Mediterranean countries in 2005. On contrary, in March Western European countries were trembling from cold and gloomily cast a glance at dark snowy sky mixed up with rain. People were surprised by so-called global warming. Really, winter turned out to be unusually cold, and spring came considerably late.

However, this circumstance can serve no refutation of thesis about global warming. At the same time, the unusually hot summer of 2003 and recent drought in Turkey, Greece, Italy, and Spain also can serve no support of it. These hot times cannot be a sound evidence of global warming. Yet, heat waves in Chicago, Paris, and elsewhere in North America and Europe will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the 21 st century, according to a new modeling study by two scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), claims UCAR (UCAR Website, n. p. ) Extreme weather changes rarely happen from time to time, and their peaks are difficult to combine into a smooth activity curve representing long-term changes in our climate. However, statistics has its own rules and scientists simply have no reliable observations for sufficiently long period of time in order to have the courage to claim about the phenomenon.

Yet, the scientists definitely claim that such draughts meet common tendency of global warming and speak about the possible outcomes of warming concerning our delicate ecosystem. The phenomenon of global warming really exists. This fact should be definitely taken into consideration, although it undermines a principal argument used by scientists who dissent with the majority view, which is that global warming is well under way with possibly dire environmental consequences (CNN Website, n. p. ). However, nowadays the major part of modern scientists supports this standpoint. What concerns possible influence on our delicate ecosystem, opinions vary.

Recent Mediterranean heat had tragic consequences: devastating forest conflagrations, loss of considerable part of crops, acute shortage of drinking water, over-expenditure of electric power, and, what is even more, - deaths of big quantity of people put not only academic, but rather practical question: is such warming an exception or a future rule? A great deal depends on the answer. Probably, we cannot dwell on exact quantity of victims and exact amount of material losses, the figures reflecting negative consequences of the heat- 2003 are dreadful. According to Italian national survey, 20, 000 surplus lives were attributed to the heat, France replied with 15, 000 surplus lives. The situation can repeat again and over again. It is easy to understand that if tropic heat and draught become merely annual event for Mediterranean countries, all usual living standards will be threatened by the consequences of global warming.

In order to make some forecasts concerning the influence of global warming on our delicate ecosystem, there were created plenty of projects. One of them is known under the name PRUDENCE. Truth to tell, prudence means sense of discretion, caution, care, etc. In this definite case PRUDENCE is abbreviation of Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects (Christensen 2003). More than 25 scientific institutions from 13 countries (Great Britain, Germany, Sweden, Israel, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Finland, France, Switzerland, Sweden and Czech Republic) take active part in this project. So, lets dwell on possible outcomes of the global warming.

Some scholars claim that temperatures around + 40 C will become a usual perspective for future. For example, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, the scientific adviser of PRUDENCE and employee of Danish Institute of Meteorology considers that during the process of global warming such periods of heat will become more and more continuous (Annual Report for 2002). According to their calculations, the periods of heat will be prolonged more than for 60 days. Such prognosis refers to the end of our century. It means that duration of summer period will increase for two months. Optimistically claiming, people who live at the north of the continent will be glad to hear such information.

People, who live in Sachel, the transition live from the deserts of Sahara to savannas of the West Africa), also will be satisfied. This region that spreads over the African continent and reaches approximately 400 km in width, often suffers from frequent droughts, and, as a consequence, failure of crops and famine. So, climate processes that carry drought to the Mediterranean coast will supply Sachel with increased quantity of atmospheric precipitates. The increase of emission of top-heat gases means that the air will be warmed up more significantly.

Besides, the air above the continent will be warmer than above the ocean. Such change in temperature will result in increase in activity of gale winds. In the long run (and it will be forecasted by all computer calculating models) climate zones will start to shift from Equator to the Poles. For example, the northern part of Africa will have more quantity of atmospheric precipitates, whereas the European Mediterranean costs will have less atmospheric precipitates. In such a way, within the course of the nearest 50 - 100 years vast life zone at the African continent can become green. The climate, typical for the Northern Africa will arrive to Mediterranean coasts and will bring droughts.

In its turn, the climate that is usually called Mediterranean, with its dry hot summer and warm rainy winter, will step over the Alps and reach the north of France and Germany. These countries will have less quantity of atmospheric precipitates. Actually, this effect we notice nowadays in Italy, Spain and France. This situation inevitably will have negative impact on hydrologic cycle. The situation concerning water supplies can be called critical even now.

The scientists still are not able to predict acute results of the consequences of global warming and climate change. They also are not able to make forecast concerning the exact time when it is going to happen. However, if duration of summer will increase for two months accompanied with simultaneous decrease of annual average of atmospheric precipitates to the north from the Alps and in the entire Mediterranean continent, situation with water supplies will become catastrophic. Some scholars have more optimistic standpoint concerning global warming.

For example, reduce in quantity of winter atmospheric precipitates to certain extent can be compensated at the expense of the technical methods of regulating (such as dam construction and reclamation constructions). These measures will allow providing territories with water supplies. In any case, we cannot make prognosis concerning floating sand-drifts in the Southern Europe. Yet, continuous droughts will cause significant difficulties in providing certain regions with water. Climate changes will influence north of Alps even more.

In particular, reduce in quantity of winter atmospheric precipitates in combination with reduce of glacier areas and area of blanket of snow in Alps will drastically change the character of North European rivers. For example, Rein can become similar to Italian river Poe: full-flowing in winter, the river will be merely dried up in summer. Can we believe in these prognoses? Are the sources reliable? Can we believe in information received from PRUDENCE and other ecological projects? The scientists consider that they wouldnt be sure in reliability of information received if the information was received based on one computer forecasting model.

However, the scientists make calculations using several computer forecasting models. All of them confirmed the verdict: the problem of global warming exists. The summer in the north of Europe will become hotter and hotter. In particular, prognosis made by American National Center for Atmospheric Research supports the same position. The intensity and duration of hot periods will increase (Raisanen 15). Most of all they will increase in geographic areas where the first signs of global warming appear.

Mediterranean coast is called one of such alarm signals. Swiss researchers also made calculations based on their own forecasting model. According to their calculations, the unusual heat in Europe in 2003 can become a usual and quite frequent event. However, these are the forecasts concerning the end of the century. What are possible impacts of global warming on ecosystem we can expect in the nearest future? There are factors that withstand global warming.

Oceans belong to one of such aspects. Nowadays oceans absorb considerable part of warmth from the atmosphere. Here we deal with so-called natural system of aquatic cooling. Only when this system stops to function, global warming will progress in seven-league boots. According to calculations of Danish researchers, it can happen only in 40 - 50 years. However, Danish model discovered another distressing peculiarity.

What concerns Mediterranean region, the postponement will elapse earlier than in any other continent. It is mainly related to peculiarities of the local soil. The soil is overdrive during summer period, it lacks moisture that could be evaporated under the influence of sunlight, taking away part of energy and cooling soil. It means that all energy of the sun goes to warm soil.

In its turn, it increases the temperature and intensifies drought. So, in 20 - 30 years such long periods of heat accompanied with complete lack of rain will be exception, and gradually will become the rule. We face the question: what can be done? The scientists do not consider future situation too pessimistic.

The man is able to adjust himself to climate changes in case these changes do not come suddenly and unexpected. Agricultural industry can, for example, start cropping drought-resistant varieties, or change the terms of harvest. In case we start to analyze possible impacts of global warming on our delicate ecosystem, we will understand that the problem is quite soluble. At the same time we have to take into account that global warming can bring a regional fall of temperature. Europe does not support this phenomenon by its current climate changes.

However, this phenomenon to all appearances seems to take place in the United States, in so-called Great Valley. Great Valley is a sub montane plateau 500 - 800 km wide. It spreads over 3, 000 km in length down the eastern flanks of Rocky Mountain hills. It is also known as Worlds granary. Here farmers grow wheat and corn and the grazing land favors effective cattle-breeding.

Still, modern climate of the Great Valley poses difficult problems for the farmers. However, future global warming can turn these lands into extremely fertile territory. According to calculations made by Zaitao Pan, the Professor in Meteorology in Saint Louis University (Missouri), ozone hole in the upper atmosphere contributed to the appearance of ozone hole in the lower atmosphere as well (p. 10). The scientist called it the thermal hole. The ozone hole is bigger than the thermal one.

However, the thermal hole also has considerable influence (at least, regional one). This region embraces four states in the centre of the United States: Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Nebraska. According to the researchers, a kind of a cold hole is located at that area. The center of the United States stubbornly resists the tendency of global warming. American scientists claim that they developed a special regional model that allows them making more precise prognoses of local climate changes. This model has considerably higher spatial resolution than other global forecasting models.

The scientists examined the curve of temperature changes and found out that central part of America withstands global tendency of warming. This effect remained unnoticed probably due to the peculiarities of atmospheric processes of local scale that are not embraced by global models. Global models, for example, do not take into account atmospheric precipitates because they are the processes of a regional scale. However, they play an important role in the central part of America.

According to regional model, convection precipitates have tendency to increase during the summer time. In result of this, major part of solar energy is directed at evaporation of moisture but not at increase of air temperature. This is the mechanism badly needed by Mediterranean coast. Probably, if the scientists examine this phenomenon more thoroughly, they will find sound solution able to eliminate negative consequences of global warming. References: Annual Report for 2002. Consequences of weather and climate changes for marine and freshwater ecosystems Conceptual and operational forecasting of the aquatic environment.

Journal no: 2052 - 01 - 0034. Retrieved October 30, 2006. web Christensen, J. H. , ThePrudenceTeam. (04 / 2003). Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects PRUDENCE. EGS - AGU - EUG Joint Assembly, Abstracts from the meeting held in Nice, France, 6 - 11 April 2003 CNN Website. (January 13, 2000).

Experts cite 'strong evidence' of global warming: Panel finds spike in temperatures over last two decades. Web posted at: 11: 41 a. m. EST (1641 GMT) Retrieved October 30, 2006.

web Raisanen J. (2004). European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Springer, Heidelberg. Journal Climate Dynamics, vol. 22, no 1, pp. 13 - 31 UCAR Website. (August 12, 2004). Future Heat Waves: More Severe, More Frequent, Longer Lasting. Retrieved October 30, 2006.

web Zaitao, Pan (October 7, 2004). No Dust Bowl here. The Daily Oklahoman. City Edition Oklahoma City: Home & Garden, p. 10


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Research essay sample on Website N P People Who Live

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