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With each passing day, people age, babies are born, and people die. Yet, as each day passes on, what happens to the population? Does a majority of the population fall within a certain age bracket, and if so, what is that age bracket? Peter, is the founder and president of Global Business Network, an organization which studies business and demographic trends. He presents an argument stating that a majority of the population will be teenagers in the 21 st century (49). Schwartz's argument is refuted by Wolfgang Lutz, head of the Population Project of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, who feels that the population trends of the 21 st century will lead to the elderly being the dominant age group (57).
Schwartz feels that the young will be the majority, and Lutz feels that the elderly would be a significant minority not a majority, therefore there will always be a workforce large enough to provide for the needs of the elderly. According to Schwartz, people under 25 constitute more than 52 % of the world population (53). Most of these young people are located in Asia; the lowest numbers can be found in North America and Europe. The early twenty-first century will bring a global baby boom and the emergence of a two-billion-strong "global teenager" age-group (49). Teenagers are currently targeted economically because of the purchasing power they possess. A new generation of teenagers are hanging out in the shopping malls and spending their parents hard earned money.
The products targeted towards teenagers include sneakers, clothes, makeup and electronics. But teenagers will expand their power into politics and economics, which influence the future of the world. The teenagers of the future will be more educated and informed than the teenagers of the baby boom. They will be interconnected through the basic technology of satellites, Walkman, video, television and the Internet. (50 - 51) The teenagers of tomorrow will spend the monetary equivalent of a car on interactive computer workstations with virtual reality capabilities; computer generated images will be part of everyday life (54). This in return will cause teenagers to become reliant on computers, a source of contact and information that is both social and factual. The power of the electronic media will become a force that will shape views and opinions.
The information shared amongst the teenagers will lead to a feeling of power and identity which in turn will lead to a reshaping of the world through their idealism and energy. The ideas that shape their world will be either highly ambitious or cynical, depending upon poverty, inflation and the media's view of things (52). To combat this, there will be a war, whether it be a entrepreneurial / capitalist or a literal war. It has been proven that societies with a large number of males are more likely to start wars over The fears over a global population with a majority of teenagers comes from uncertainty over what will happen. There has been the thought that the teenagers of tomorrow will be over ambitious, use cheap communication, have the mindset of a computer programmer, travel to other places via the Internet, and provide uncertainty for the future because of demographics (55). The uncertainty of demographics is due to not knowing the rate of immigration.
The problem with immigration is those coming from less developed countries to more developed countries will not know the new technology and be disadvantaged. For example, a teenager from Mexico who goes to the United States may not know how to type or surf the web and therefore will be at a disadvantage in the job market. In the job market it is estimated that 85 % of the labor force will be comprised of young, culturally diverse nonwhite workers (56). To distinguish trends in the workforce is also a difficult task. This is due to not knowing what may happen and cause huge immigration waves due to world conditions.
Yet, the current trends in fertility, mortality and immigration are causes of the elderly becoming the dominant age group. Approximately one in three people are currently under age 15 in contrast to one in ten being over 60. But those numbers are soon to change due to the average age increasing. (58) According to Lutz, the average age of the world's population will rise from 28 to 41 years old in 2100, with the increase of people over 60 years old increasing from 9. 2 % to 25. 5 % (57). The oldest populations are located in Western Europe.
The reason for this is that industrialized societies have better medicine and technology that enables The lifecycle has an effect on the society. The increase and decrease in a population depends upon the rate of growth. The slower the population growth, the faster the aging of the population (60). Countries such as those in Africa will have a problem supporting their elderly because there aren't programs for them. Due to disease, environmental problems, political instability and civil wars, taking care of the elderly is However, the United States is a stable country and there is the problem of how to take care of the elderly.
Currently, the elderly receive social security and Medicare. But because the baby boomer population is aging, it is likely that by 2030 1 in 4 people will be older than 60 (63). Currently, the average age is 28, but by 2030 as well, the average will rise to between 31 - 35 years old (58). Lutz has also projected that China and Western Europe will be the two regions most impacted by the growing elderly population The rate of population growth is dependent on fertility.
If, the world follows a policy of low fertility, the population pyramid will shrink causing, the population to be mainly elderly. If the population of a country is mainly elderly, what will happen? This leaves a country open for attacks and war from countries with higher youth populations. Also, who will replace the elderly when they pass on?
The base of the age pyramid will narrow and thus cause harm in the long run. The only way to avoid aging of a population is to have a higher fertility rate. Yet this contradicts the need for a smaller population and There is no solution to the question of "Is society better off with a larger elderly or teenage population?" The future can not be predicted no matter what technique is used. Something will always occur that alters the path to the future. Technology will help to keep the elderly population healthy and live longer lives. But on the same hand, a war or famine can destroy populations all together whether young or old.
The population shifts and growth rates are really dependent on what economic level the country is. Developed nations will have older population due to technology. The less developed countries will have higher teenager populations due to the high birth rates. Overall, the elderly and young populations will balance causing both to co-exist and not have a dominant Works Cited Bender, David and Bruno Leone. 21 st Century Earth. San Diego: Green haven Press, 1996.
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